Nov 11, 2011

The basics of fundamental vs. technical analysis

Let's start with fundamental analysis This type of analysis relies on the study of the economy, the industry the company is related to and the company itself. You would study the condition of the company and how it is doing in relation to itself in another time period, be it year to year or quarter to quarter. You would also study it to see how it is performing in relation to other similar companies within the same sector or industry as well as the overall economy.

The study of the management team is also an important part of this type of analysis. Is the current management team competent to lead the company forward, considering whatever problem(s) might be facing it right now, be it labor problems, supply or research? Do they have the experience necessary to make the company prosper over the coming quarters and years?

You must analyze the balance sheet of the company and compare it to itself at other periods of time as well as how it stands in relation to it's industry or sector. Is the company making money from year to year and quarter to quarter? Is it positioned to benefit from new technologies as they become available? Will these technologies hurt or harm the company? What is the management team doing to protect the company from adversity as well as to prosper in the coming years?

What's the cash and balance sheet position of the company in relation to itself in prior years or quarters and in relation to other companies in it's industry? Is it improving or falling behind?

What's the price of the stock compared to it's earnings; it's P/E ratio? Is it improving, staying about the same or declining; again in relation to the overall market, it's industry and compared to itself over time. Earnings play a large role in this type of analysis and the earnings reports and announcements effect everyone.

There are hundreds, if not thousands of figures available on a company, which may be used to analyze and compare, to determine what is the fair market price of the company's stock.

Technical analysis is, in it's most simplest form, the study of the price of a security, market or item. It usually involves the use of chart, which displays the price over a period of time. The technical analyst believes that by studying the past performance of price on a chart, you can forecast the future performance of that price.

On the chart, there are many different ways to display the price itself. It may be displayed as a simple line, a bar showing the open, high, low and closing position. You might also use a point and figure style of display or Candlesticks, Candle Volume, Equivolume, Kagi, Renko, or Three Line Break. The list of methods for just displaying the prices goes on and on.

You also must also decide do you use a simple graph of prices with fixed price intervals or do you want a semi log method of displaying the relationship of price trends.

I assume you are using a computer to handle the charting itself verses doing your charting by hand. Don't laugh, I have done it by hand. You should have seen my 5 years worth of chart on the hourly prices of the DJIA; it was about 10 feet high. Anyway, back to the subject; you may have many different colors available to display the price, indicating up movement verses down as well as other colors filtered in when other indicators are relevant.

Usually the volume is also displayed on the chart, in some fashion. In many display methods, the volume is calculated with the price and displayed as one item. Traditional technical analysis usually has the volume displayed at the bottom of the chart as a separate item or window within the chart. This allows for technical indicators to be used and calculated on the volume as well as the price.

After you figure all of that out, you are presented with thousands of methods and indicators to aid in your analysis; moving averages, oscillators, trend lines, Fibonnaci relationships, volume studies and many, many more.

There are still other, basically stand alone methods used to study price such as the Elliott Wave, Gann, Candlesticks, etc. Some technicians use "black box" systems to signal the trades and when to place them. These are usually constructed with mathematical formulas and give signals which are triggered when certain price, volume or indicator conditions or combinations are met.

The only way to go for short to medium term analysis is with technical analysis. Fundamental analysis may take years for the price to catch up or for the street to discover what your research has found about the true worth of the company.