Nov 10, 2011

If I Had Time And $10,000 Where I'd Invest

Any good investor looks well beyond the current market conditions and makes educated guesses about the future. Right now the market is a mess with several difficult and dangerous possibilities that must be determined before any type of normalcy is resumed. But given that Iraq and North Korea will be eventually resolved (some believe quickly and sooner rather than later), what should an investor be doing with money right now? Here's a hypothetical allocation of $10,000 for an investor with at least a five year time horizon.

Buy the wounded giants. There are some very big names selling at some very attractive prices: Apple, McDonald's, Amazon, Wal-Mart to name a few. Of course, each stock needs to be investigated in depth to determine why it's selling at such a low price. Further, you'd have to determine if the price is more than just absolutely low. That is, the price may be low on an absolute basis, having come down dramatically, but if the earnings have also come way down, then the stock may still be relatively high and therefore not a bargain. But if a stock has kept its earnings stream positive and is selling at a relatively low valuation, now would be a great time to buy about $3000 worth of at least five of these giants. When the market decides to move higher, these stocks will lead it.

Buy the future. There are exciting developments in biotech and technology. Many will not be fruitful but several will be hits. Look into mutual funds that specialize in these areas and have a broad spectrum of stocks within the industry. Don't expect a quick reward from these funds because the smaller biotech and tech stocks aren't going to lead the market higher. Rather, these funds will show positive results when the stocks they own start to make money. The market isn't rewarding stocks at the present who only have promise and not profits. But if the fund is doing its job, the stocks it picks will eventually show those results and have some tried and true industry leaders in the mix. Trying to buy one or two biotech stocks or technology stocks is hard for an individual and therefore, the funds are a better way to go. I'd put $3000 into at least five different funds.

Buy some dividends. While dividends have become popular because of the President's focus on excluding them from taxation, they have always been a meaningful way of earning a return on an investment. Don't buy the stocks with the highest dividends. Buy the ones with the safest dividends. Large cap stocks will have better and safer dividends. Buy about $2000 worth of these stocks.

Buy some income. Put some of the money into fixed income. Don't buy bonds. Buy short term investments such as CD's, treasury bills, money market accounts, anything that has a short maturity. While the earned interest will be small, this is a way of keeping some funds available for future stock purchases and still earn money on it. Put about $1000 in this investment.

Have some cash. Keep about $1000 in cash to move into the market if there is a large downward price correction due to the war or an unforeseen reason. The cash can be earning interest in a money market account while you wait. But leave this last amount for a day when the world seems to be ending and a stock you've always wanted to buy is on sale at a price you never thought you'd see.

While this is a rather conservative portfolio, it is timely. Being cautious but being in the market is going to pay off very well for the investors who have nerves to hang in here. With the above allocation, they will earn interest and dividends and have an opportunity to participate in an upward move in the market.