Nov 12, 2011

A LOOK AT VOLUME AND ITS USE IN YOUR ANALYSIS

Many traders and investors, particularly new ones, get so involved in all of the different indicators that are available in the newer technical analysis programs that they forget or just plain ignore some of the more tried and true indicators.

Sometimes, you may find that this lack of fore site may hurt you in your trading. Don't ignore the simple stuff for the complex without giving the simple approaches at least a good look. A complete basic understanding of all the techniques available will serve you much better over the long haul.

Volume is really an indicator, in my humble opinion, and should be treated as such. In its most simple form, it shows buying and/or selling pressure in a stock in an ongoing self perpetuating manner. It can and often does show buying pressure in a stock near a bottom and also often points out possible tops as they are occurring.

Usually the volume of a stock or market, when available, is automatically down loaded with the usual price data points of open, high, low and close in almost all end of day type data programs. Don't ignore this piece of the puzzle just because it is something that is not often used in all of those other fancy and more complicated indicators that are available to you.

Simple volume figures can be very useful in your day to day analysis. When a stock is rising in price with expanding volume occurring simultaneously, you have an indicator that is confirming the price action. On the other hand, if the rise in price is occurring with shrinking volume figures then you would possibly do well to pay heed and treat the rise in price as suspicious.

Don't just follow volume in a day to day kind of way. Another way to compare volume is to compare it to itself during price rallies as well as during price down trends. Are the volume figures on this rally or decline greater or less than the last rally or decline? This gives you a way to make sure you are always comparing apples to apples and not confusing the issue. Make sure you are not lumping all of your fruit in together and comparing random or different elements.

Whenever you have a price break out from a trend line, moving average or some type of technical price formation, you should always look at the volume for confirmation that the price movements are justified. You may be able to move into your trade with a much higher degree of confidence than what the price action alone is telling you. If it is not confirming the break out with increased interest and therefore volume, then a failure is a much more distinct possibility.

An exception to the rule and it seems that there always is one, is that volume should contract after a selling climax. Volume will expand into the selling climax and will quite often peak very near to when the bottom is made. Volume should contract on the following rise in price. This is one of the few times in which declining volume accompanied by higher prices is considered normal and/or even desirable.

Consider looking at the volume figures as you do your day to day analysis and trading. When you look at a chart, trying to determine what the future holds, be sure to see what the volume has been doing in the last couple of days in conjunction with the price movement. Also look at the last rally and the volume participation or lack of it. Look at the last decline and look at how the volume acted then. Volume may provide you with another clue to the future price action in this stock.

If you scan a lot of charts looking for your next winner, try to look at the simple stuff first and one of them is volume. Then you will be able to make a more informed decision and determine whether to proceed with additional analysis.